Peak Oil? Peak 97% Prediction Failure!

Open-Ended Resourceship: Bring on 2012!

By Robert Bradley Jr. — December 29, 2011

“The total supply of any mineral is unknown and unknowable because the future knowledge that would create mineral resources cannot be known before its time.”

“Human ingenuity and capital investment under a regime of economic calculation can lead society to new combinations of minerals—or minerals and non-minerals—to perform the same (or better) economic services over time.”

If resources are not fixed but created, then the nature of the scarcity problem changes dramatically.

For the technological means involved in the use of resources determines their creation and therefore the extent of their scarcity.  

The nature of the scarcity is not outside the process (that is natural), but a condition of it.”

– Tom DeGregori (1987). “Resources Are Not; They Become: An Institutional Theory.” Journal of Economic Issues, p. 1258.


Thanks to technology, we’re not going to run out of oil

“If you read Stephen Moore’s *column, he noted how the consensus over oil is wrong. We’re not running out of oil. In fact, many have been saying we’re going to run out since the 1930s.
Moore added that technological advancements are increasing oil production.
In fact, Kerry Jackson at Investors Business Daily wrote in November that these advances are going to almost triple the amount of fossil fuel resources if research and development continue.”
These stupid predictions of the end of oil have been going on for most of the last century.
Just over 100 years ago, the U.S. Bureau of Mines estimated total future production at 6 billion barrels, yet we’ve produced more than 20times that amount.
In 1939 the Department of the Interior predicted U.S. oil supplies would last 13 years. I could go on.